Why Positive Expected Value (+EV) Betting is the Way to Go?
Risk Management
With the positive expected value betting approach, you're not just betting blindly. You'll learn to manage your bankroll effectively, ensuring you don't lose more than you can afford.
Consistent Profitability
Unlike random betting, the positive expected value betting approach focuses on long-term profitability. By making informed decisions, you increase your chances of consistent wins over time.
Informed Decision Making
positive expected value betting is not about guessing. It's about making decisions based on data, statistics, and analysis, ensuring you place bets with a higher probability of success.
How to find plays that have a positive expected value netting edge?
I’m going to walk you through step by step to find +EV player props to help you build better entries. Remember, this doesn’t guarantee a 100% win rate but over the course of your betting career, it’ll definitely make you more successful.
Start by using the Fantasy Optimizer
The table is sorted by the '% Chance to Hit' column, which immediately highlights some of the best plays available at any given time. However, don't make the mistake of simply bundling the top 5 plays into a single slip. Instead, carefully examine each row to identify the absolute best plays.
Look for line discrepancies
As you can see, ParlayPlay has set Deshaun Watson's passing yards at 237.5. When we compare this to other sportsbooks like Pinnacle, FanDuel, DraftKings, and Caesars, they've all set his passing yards at 235.5 or lower. This discrepancy in lines is a significant advantage in our favor. Therefore, this play is clearly a strong candidate for betting on the 'Under.'
Same line, different price
For our second play, it's clear that the combined 'Receiving Yards' for Darren Waller and Deebo Samuel is set at 99.5 yards. When compared to sharp sportsbooks, they all lean towards the 'Over,' as indicated by their heavily juiced odds. For instance, Pinnacle offers it at -130, while FanDuel has it at -179. This suggests that ParlayPlay has set their line too low, giving us another advantageous opportunity.